EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Islamic Republic of Iran is a threat to peace in the Middle East and the world. Iran needs freedom, economic reform and a responsible secular, democratic government to put an end to theocratic rule.
2. In spite of this, Iran is an important force that has the potential to contribute immensely to peace and stability in the region. Equally, this influence can be used to destabilise the Middle East.
3. Since the Revolution of 1979, Iran has sought the resurrection of an Islamic empire and its founder, Ayatollah Khomeini, has proclaimed Iranian regional hegemony as a fundamental strategic objective.
4. Iran, especially through the Quds force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), is responsible for foreign subversive operations and is active in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Europe, Africa and overall, Latin America.
5. Western diplomacy has run around in a closed circle for several years in a patently fatuous effort to negotiate with Iran and put an end to its nuclear weapons programme. An apocalyptic regime that believes in dissimulation and for foreign-policy issues consults with the Quran is not going to be a partner for peace.
6. The wisest policy is regime change and support for the Iranian people, who during the last 13 months have proven ready to overthrow the regime.
7. Throughout history, both ancient and modern, in times of crisis and general malaise, as soon as a national leader emerged, particularly when supported by the International Community, the people of Iran have quickly rallied around the new leader and brought about change.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is a threat to the peace in the region and the world. Above all else Iran needs freedom, economic reform and a responsible secular democratic government to put an end to theocratic rule and to take the country out of isolation so that Iran can assume its rightful place as a respected and influential partner in the Middle East.
To understand Iran’s geostrategic position in the region, it is important take a careful look at the map and location of Iran and its importance on the international chessboard. Iran is a large country of 1,648 million square kilometres and a population of 73 million.
It possesses a unique geostrategic situation, located as it is in a critical area between two zones of energy, the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, which contains 70 percent of world’s known energy reserves and 60 percent of its natural Gas. It has a 1570 miles coastline on the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman, with command of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. It possesses 12 percent of the world’s proven reserves of petroleum and has the world’s second largest reserves of natural gas. Iran is also blessed with a long and distinguished historical, cultural and intellectual tradition of challenging ideas and questioning authority.
Like his archenemy the late Shah of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini harboured a clear vision for the future. However, whereas the Shah aimed only at the restoration of Iran’s ancient empire as one of the main global players in the international political arena, the Ayatollah envisioned the resurrection of the Muslim empire of yore in the form of a loose federation of Muslim republics that would wage the ultimate jihad and hoist Islam’s flag over the whole planet under the leadership of the clergy.
Because Khomeini knew that such an endeavour would require many years to achieve, he proclaimed regional hegemony as the immediate objective. Khomeini was convinced that a confrontation with the United States and the destruction of Israel were prerequisites to the success of his overall project. He defined the first stage of his grand design in a threefold “plan”: First, the establishment of a Persian Gulf –Mediterranean axis through alliances with the Shiites of Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq; second, the exportation of the Revolution to other Muslim countries, especially those in the Middle East and Africa, and third, the launching of a worldwide ”terrorist” campaign against Western interests.
Some of these objectives have been achieved more or less completely, for instance alliance with Syria; control of terrorist and radical movements like Hizballah and Hamas; cooperation with Sunni militant fundamentalists, and most importantly, the construction of nuclear weapons. In May 1991, one of the top Mullahs in Iran, Moussavi-Khoeiniha, openly declared, “If we obtain the nuclear ability, the waves of the Islamic Revolution will gain new power, and liberation movements throughout the world will look at the Islamic Republic of Iran as a new superpower with all its ideological potentials”.
There has been no break in ideological or operational continuity from Ayatollah Khomeini to Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad, who presently rule Iran. America was proclaimed the Great Satan in 1979 and the Great Satan it remains. The destruction of Israel was invoked in 1979 and is promised every week. Iran created, supported and penetrated the major terrorist organizations and still does today.
The influence of the Quds force of the IRGC, which was established in the early phase of the Iran-Iraq war, goes as far as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as well as countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, the Palestinian Territories and beyond into Europe, Africa and especially Latin America. This influence is largely channelled through links with terrorist organisations such as Hizballah, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other regional groups. According to intelligence sources, Brigadier-General Qassem Suleimani, who currently heads the Quds force, personally headed covert operations in Bosnia during the Balkan wars of the 1990s. Indeed, some 200 advisers from the Quds force were in Bosnia during that time. Officers of Qassem Suleimani gave intelligence and logistical support to the European operations of Al-Qaeda in Bosnia. From Bosnia and Croatia, the Quds force is in contact with the European operations of Al-Qaeda.
In Iraq, US officials are currently reporting renewed activity by the Quds force inside to bolster Shiite factions in the country. Tehran’s aim, it often seems, is to “Lebanonise” Iraq and its patchwork of sects and tribes and to create networks of client militias, collaborators, agents and informers that would keep the country off balance and in turmoil, but be able when it so desired to seize control by force if necessary, just as it has done in Lebanon, where Hizballah is the most powerful force in that sect-divided country.
It is important to recognise that the Shiite Lebanese Hizballah is under the direct control of Iran. With the help of Iran, Hizballah was established in 1982. With the consent of Syria, Ayatollah Khomeini also sent 1,000 Revolutionary Guards in the Beqa’a Valley to train the party’s members. Hizballah receives arms from Iran through Syria and an enormous amount of financial support. The commander of the Quds force of the IRGC, Qassem Suleimani, established close links with Hizballah leaders, in particular with Imad Mughniyeh, the movement’s security chief and the alleged mastermind of its devastating campaign suicide bombings against Israelis and Americans in the 1980s. Qassem Suleimani was deeply involved in the July 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah and is believed to have been in Lebanon’s Beqa’a Valley during the fighting. Hizballah also has a large international network, and in Germany possesses between 800-1000 Muslim followers and supporters.
How Iran’s strategy in Iraq will play out now depends to a large extent on who heads the next government. Maliki, who will become more pro-Tehran if he succeeds, or Iyad Allawi who possibly wants nothing to do with the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Iran may not be able to impose a pro-Iranian state on Iraq, it has sufficient influence to block the creation of any strong Iraqi government either through direct influence or by creating destabilizing violence in Iraq. If Tehran took control of only Iraq’s southern fields , Iran’s oil reserves would surpass those of Saudi Arabia, its Sunni-dominated regional rival. The geo-strategic consequences of that would be immense, giving Tehran control of a large proportion of the world’s oil reserves and the muscle that goes with it. Incidentally, it is worth noting that Iran also supports and funds the 15 per cent of the Saudi population that is Shiite to revolt against the Kingdom. On 15th May 2009 the Shiites declared independence from Saudi Arabia and established what they declared as the Islamic Republic of Eastern Arabia.
The present Iranian clerical Government of President Ahmadinejad has also employed enormous diplomatic, intelligence, economic, and military operations to gain a long-term foothold in Latin America and Africa. Countries where Iranian efforts have been particularly pervasive include Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua in Latin America, as well as in Sudan, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Sierra Leone in Africa. Inevitably, this influence has often been far from positive, and Iran has been charged with masterminding terrorist operations, including two Hizballah bomb attacks in Argentina in 1992 and 1994. The 1992 bombing was on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires that killed 30 people and the 1994 bombing was on the Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association that killed 85 people.
Worryingly, President Ahmadinejad’s Latin America policy has been met with open arms, especially by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez who has been a thorn in Washington’s side for the past decade. As both countries are oil rich, they can assist and support each other from an equal standing and with relative confidence.
In Nicaragua, it was only a matter of days after the election that returned President Daniel Ortega returned to power on 5th November 2006 that President Ahmadinejad made it clear how pleased Iran was to welcome a leader whose prime enemy was the United States. Ortega later visited Tehran, where he and Ayatollah Khamenei talked of their common antipathy towards America. It was suspected that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives had been moving in and out of Nicaragua in unusual ways. It is known that 21 Iranian Quds operatives were allowed to enter Nicaragua without passport processing. There has been intense activity by radical Islamist groups in the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, to the benefit of terrorist networks. While Muslims in the region are mostly Sunni, in line with the proportion worldwide, the Shia represent almost half of all Muslims in Foz de Iguaza, which is the Brazilian city in the TBA with the largest Muslim community. Indeed, quite a few terrorists who have planned or participated in activities in the Middle East and the United States spent time in the TBA. Surely members of Qassem Suleimani’s Quds force are also based in this area ready for subversive operations.
Sudan and Zimbabwe are two African countries that have very close diplomatic and intelligence relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. In the 1990s, Iran offered oil and development aid to the new government in Khartoum. In October 1990 , diplomatic relations between Sudan and Iran were raised to the ambassadorial level. Sudan very quickly became, in many respects, a satellite of Iran, and according to a US congressional report, a distribution for Iranian weapons for extremist Islamic organizations . The government of President al-Bashir provided refuge to members of a wide variety of groups such as Hizballah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Algerian FIS. The Quds force of the IRGC, under the supervision of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (VEVAK), provided training for these groups and prepared these groups for subversive operations against the West, and particularly the state of Israel.
The Iranian nuclear question is another and extremely serious threat to international security, particularly in the Middle East region, as well as Southern Europe and Russia. By 2015, it is anticipated that Iran will possess Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching even the United States of America. Iran’s missile programmes have to date focused on the development of the Shahab-3 missile, which was first tested in July 1998. Since then Iran has tested the Shahab-3 on four more occasions. The Shahab-3 can reliably reach targets within 1,300 km and the newer Sejil-2 missile, which works with solid fuel, can reach targets with a range of 2,000 km. The Islamic Republic has made its long-term plans quite apparent by buying six cruise missiles with some 2,975 km range from the Ukraine. The Islamic Republic of Iran possesses, with the KH-55, a cruise missile powerful enough to deliver a 200 kiloton nuclear weapon, or biological, chemical or conventional payloads, over substantial distances quite accurately.
Western diplomacy has run around in a closed circle for several years in a patently fatuous effort to negotiate an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. Negotiations and diplomatic engagement failed long ago. An apocalyptic regime that believes in dissimulation and for foreign policy decisions consults with the Quran is not going to be a partner for peace.
Tehran’s regime engages in negotiations only as a means of deception, to buy time to reach its strategic, expansionist objectives. No serious person can possibly believe that negotiations nor, in all likelihood , mild economic sanctions –will compel the Mullahs to end the enrichment of Uranium.
Nor can any serious person believe that Iran’s ambitions are limited to the construction of nuclear plants for the production of electricity. If that were all the Islamic Republic of Iran wanted , they could have done the whole thing openly, with the full approval and assistance of the many countries that have mastered this technology. However, Iran did not pursue its nuclear programme in this way, instead preferring clandestine laboratories, underground facilities, tunnels carved into the sides of mountains, secret heavy-water programmes, and collusion with the criminals of the nuclear market.
The wisest policy is not negotiations, and not a military strike by the United States or Israel, but regime change. This means the support of the brave people of Iran who during the last 13 months have proven to be ready to overthrow the regime that they abhor.
Iranians want a radical change and the removal of the Islamic Regime from the pinnacle of power. They do not believe in reform of the regime, as former allies of the regime seek. Support of the Iranian people by the International Community, and in particular the United States, will galvanize and give new energy to the brave people who proved in the streets of Tehran and the biggest cities of Iran that are ready to rise and topple the regime.
Revolutions rarely succeed without external support. The lack of an outside base of support goes hand-in-hand with a component of Iranian culture that is absolutely central to the chances of regime change. The Iranians believe that major events, especially in their part of the world, only happen if the United States and Britain wants them to happen. Many Iranians will stay away from a peaceful revolution or non-violent civil-disobedience unless the American government openly and explicitly supports it.
The foundations of the Islamic regime are shaky. The element of fear is gone and people are openly challenging, and disrupting, the rule of Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Moreover, the leadership itself is also divided.
In addition to this turmoil the Iranian regime faces serious economic difficulties ranging from high unemployment, the lack of foreign and even domestic investments, and the need for technology to develop its industries. The economy’s burdensome legacy and economic mismanagement has brought about double-digit inflation, unemployment of about 30%, as well as price distortions due to extensive subsidies and supports. The over-valued national currency is responsible for the country’s substantial capital flight, dramatic decline in the country’s foreign exchange reserves, and an enormous level of government debt.
Furtheremore, the quality of the management of the economy and the administration is declining. The growing role of the paramilitary in all aspects of the economy and the lack of any meritocracy has resulted in poor economic performance and shortages of critical social amenities from housing to healthcare. Rising poverty and a widening gap between the privileged and connected rich on the one hand, and the ordinary population on the other, is also of great concern.
It is time for the Obama administration to tilt openly and enthusiastically towards the people and offer its unwavering support to them. Finally it could help formation of a competent national government in exile using nationalist Iranian forces and a nationalist charismatic leadership that can reflect the ideas and will of the people of Iran and lead them to gain their freedom. It is important to add that Iranian society is very hierarchal, and has always been leader-oriented.
Throughout Iranian history, ancient and modern, in times of crisis and general malaise, as soon as a national leader emerged, particularly when supported by the International Community, the people would almost instantly congregate around the new leader and bring about change. Of course, it is necessary to mention that in the past leaders failed to lay solid foundations or build a system based on democratic values so that the country could remain stable after the termination or disappearance of that leadership.
This would be the best way of solving the most pressing international crisis and turn Iran from an enemy into friend of the West, and a force of peace and moderation in this volcanic region.
Dr Fariborz Saremi is based in Hamburg, Germany and is a Political, Military and Intelligence analyst. Dr Saremi is a member of the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA) and a contributor to Defense & Foreign Affairs and World Tribune.com
